Baird Equity Research — May 26, 2026

Quick take on this week’s Crop Progress with planting season entering later innings. USDA weekly Crop Progress report shows 86% of corn planted (flat year/year, (+3% vs. recent average) and 60% emerged (-5% year/year, +2% vs. recent average). For soybeans, 79% have been planted (+4% year/year, +11% vs. recent average) and 49% emerged (+1% year/year, +9% vs. recent average). Corn acres are now down slightly year/year through Week 8 though soybean acres continue to run well above prior year, based on our estimates. Acreages for both running above recent averages.

Through Week 8 of plant, Corn acres running 4% behind last year, soy 8% ahead based on our estimates; planting progress for both continues to run well ahead of recent averages.

  • Modest rains expected across key corn/soy states; Southern IN and OH expected to see heavier rain with modest rain expected across the rest of the corn/soy belt.
  • Crop prices recently rebounded driven by supply concerns surrounding Middle East energy/fertilizer disruptions; prices are still below breakeven levels (soy and corn), planted acres point to another big US crop with further pressure on prices likely barring a weather event this summer (drought). Crop prices have rebounded some as persistent Middle East tensions continue to keep fertilizer/diesel prices at elevated levels while a potential trade deal with China further boosted sentiment. It is important to remember that in order for higher prices to be sustained crop supply/production needs to decline...thus far we are not seeing much sign of that happening in North America. China trade deal seems to have several unknowns still, plus even what has been presented ($17 billion in purchases) falls well short of what was purchased as recently as 2022 (30% below). Over the past week Corn pulled back to $4.60/bu (May and Jul27 futures contracts have pulled back to <$5.00/bu vs. $5.40 breakeven) while soybeans have pulled back to $11.90/bu after spiking to $12.30 earlier this month (breakeven >$13.30/bu). Initial corn/soy condition should be released next week and will be the next key datapoint to track over the coming months as growing season progresses.

Click here for more Industry News.